Theresa May is either sleep-walking towards what could be one of the greatest political upsets in decades or she will pull a rabbit out of the proverbial hat and silence her critics.
Everything will come down to the momentus event that will take place on Tuesday 15 January, when MPs vote on the PM’s Brexit deal.
At the time of writing all the signs point to the MPs rejecting the deal, especailly if we consider that she has not been able to agree any further concessions with the EU and that the DUP (whose MPs are propping up the governemnt) does not support the deal.
Theresa May has been repeating the same message for weeks, which is that it is either her deal or the UK will revert to WTO rules when we leave the EU. She has explained this in more ways than I could imagine, but her message has at least been consistent.
As a seasoned parliamentarian, Mrs May will know exactly what her supporters and detractors are thinking, and unless she is totally deluded our PM must be aware that she is heading for a fall.
Or is she?
Perhaps our PM has something up her sleeve and that she has in fact been able to agree something with the EU, which will make the deal more palatable to everyone and that she wins the vote. It is hard to imagine that the prime minister has been able to conduct secret talks with the EU, which will ensure that the vote is won, but it is equally unlikely that Theresa May would walk into the House of Commons on 15 January knowing that she will lose.
The only other explanation is that the PM is expecting to lose so that she can fly over to Brussels and explain that if the EU want to avoid the no-deal Brexit, and safeguard 39 billion euros, then they must be prepared to make further concessions.
The only thing we know for sure is that businesses across the UK are desperate for clarity, whether they voted to remain or leave. This lack of clarity and the doubt over future trade agreements with the EU is putting investment decisions on hold, which will start to have an impact on employment and productivity.